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by Rugby4Cast / 25th April 2019

Round 11: A Stats Look

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Round 10 Debrief

Another round down with the Algorithm achieving 3 from 6 correct. So what happened? The Waratahs showed they can get it done without Folau. The Canes survived a big 1st half scare to overcome a 13 point deficit and the Brumbies scraped past the Stormers.

Round 11 Matches and Predictions

So, here’s the Algorithms predictions for the next round of Super Rugby.

Crusaders v Lions

The Crusaders currently sit atop the NZ and overall leaderboard. Looking at their performances you can see why.

Averaging 33 points per game, never losing at home and their only loss this season a bizarre away loss against the Waratahs. Quite some stats.
The Lions won against the Chiefs last weekend and will be hoping this will continue against the Canterbury based team. They will be up against it however, and we can’t see it happening for the South African side. The Algorithm has the Crusaders to win by 16.

Sunwolves v Highlanders

The Sunwolves have been great at home and could be argued to have even more wins next to their name, however their performance in the final quarter has let them down.
The Highlanders also won last weekend against the improved 2019 Blues however, it is worth noting the Blues still have issues playing away from Auckland.

These two teams have only played each other once with the Highlanders winning 40-15. However, the Highlanders haven’t had the best of luck away from Dunedin in 2019.
The Algorithm however thinks the Highlanders will win it by 11. Confident. Can they improve their away record?

Hurricanes v Chiefs

The Hurricanes have been a mixed bag in attack and defence and currently stand pretty even, with a +9 in the points difference column after 10 rounds.
Below is the last 10 games between the two sides in Wellington.

We also looked at the last 5 results anywhere between these two teams.

Not much to split these teams at all!
The Chiefs are still however rooted to the bottom of the NZ conference and will need to show up to overturn the Canes away from home.
The Algorithm has Hurricanes winning it by 11 in Wellington.

Waratahs v Sharks

The Waratahs had a lot of distractions off the field last week and were down 7-20 at halftime against the Rebels. We all thought these distractions would be their undoing but to their credit they fought back and eventually won the match by a close 23-20. Incredible scenes.
The Sharks ended up losing to the Reds at home which will have hurt them considering how poor the Reds are away from Queensland. They will have to pick themselves up and refocus for this weekend.

As can be seen, all but 2 of the recent matches have been won by the home side. The Algorithm therefore has Waratahs winning it by 7.

Stormers v Bulls

Interesting fixture! The Bulls have been fighting it out for top spot in a tight South African conference against both the Sharks and the Lions. Some people might remember the last time these teams faced off it was a huge win to the Bulls who won 40-3. Will the same happen here?
Well, the Algorithm has Stormers winning it by 7. Shocked by this? Below are the previous 10 games between these sides playing in Cape Town, and the Bulls last won back in 2011. Home advantage is clearly a big factor for the Stormers.

Jaguares v Brumbies

The Jaguares are coming off a bye will be looking to carry on where they left off after hammering a strong Sharks side 51-17.
The Brumbies won away from home last weekend scraping past the Stormers 17-19.
We have had a look at the previous encounters between these two teams below.

50/50 and interestingly enough both won by the away side. The Algorithm thinks these are anomalies however, and has Jaguares winning it by 6.
 
What do you think? Leave a comment and give us your thoughts.
 

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