by Rugby4Cast / 01st October 2019
Analysis World Cup 2019


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We’re now approaching the half-way point in the tournament and, with every side having played twice, we know a little more about what each side has to do to qualify for the knockout stages.

Looking ahead to round 3, the stand-out fixture is Japan vs Samoa in Group A, where it seems the most drama is to be had. Japan’s win over Ireland put them top of the group but Scotland and Ireland still have plenty to play for, with each of those three still in with a chance of qualifying or coming third. The predicted outcome of that game is Japan to edge it by six points, with the Algorithm giving Japan a 70% chance of victory. The bookies are giving Japan a -16-point difference on the handicap, which contradicts the Algorithm, so Samoa +16 at about EVENS looks good value.

Another of the more eye-catching games sees Italy face South Africa. The Springboks are heavy favourites with the bookies at 1/33, with Italy at 33/1. The Algorithm expects South Africa to win comfortably by 24 points and it would be a huge shock for Italy to do something to the contrary. They do have quality though and often cause sides in the Six Nations problems so at 33/1, they are worth a small penny.

England vs Argentina would probably be the pick of the round three games and the first chance to see England properly tested. The Algorithm is saying it will be an England win by around 12 points, which is probably about right. The bookies also favour England but Argentina are capable of beating anyone on their day so at 11/2, that looks quite a big price.

The remaining games look very one-sided and there is little to no value in those games from a betting angle. The Algorithm is going for big wins for the likes of New Zealand, Australia and France.

The Algorithm is going strong still so far, with just the three games called incorrectly, those being the shock Uruguay win over Fiji, Wales’ narrow win against Australia and of course, Japan’s historic victory over Ireland.

[latestpredictions category=’round 3′]