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So here we are staring down the barrel of the final two weeks. Given each team only has a couple of games left, practically speaking there are only a few realistic outcomes left that can affect who can take the title.
So here’s a quick rundown of who needs to do what to whom in order to win the 2018 Six Nations.
Ireland, England and Scotland are the only ones with realistic chances, although Scotland’s is very small. Mathematically Wales and France can also do it, but we make Wales’ chances to be around 0.3% and France, even less than that.
Currently the standings are as follows.
Ireland are 5 points ahead of England, and 6 ahead of Scotland with 2 games to play.
The remaining fixtures are:
However, it is more likely that Ireland will lose in Twickenham. England have a strong record at home, especially in the Six Nations, having not lost a home match in the tournament since 2012. We give Ireland around a 30% chance of victory in Twickenham.
Under these circumstances, England beating Ireland and both teams ending on four wins, bonus points (BP) will be important. A bonus point is obtained by scoring four tries or more, or being within seven points of the opposition if losing.
We give this a 3% chance of happening.
This has around a 0.3% chance of happening
Interestingly in this particular situation, Scotland would have four wins (assuming they beat Italy), with England, Ireland and Wales on three, but Wales would win and Scotland would likely finish third due to bonus points. A real kick in the teeth for the Scots.
Below is the most likely finishing table come the end of the final weekend.
Let us know your thoughts, or if you want any other scenarios run. And if you like this kind of stuff, follow us on Twitter and other social media (@Rugby4Cast) to get similar infographics and a live feed from our brains.