How it Works
You devil, you. You fancy a flutter on some matches based on our predictions? You must be mad! MAD! We have absolutely no idea what we’re doing. But, if you absolutely insist, and promise to be very careful…
As mentioned in the explanation of how The Algorithm works, each predicted score is actually a metric to describe the relative historical strength of the two teams, based on The Algorithm’s assessment of their performances over previous years. What this means is that our predictions are generally a good place to start in forming an opinion on what may happen in upcoming matches, but you may want to plonk on top some of your own knowledge as well.
For example, we don’t (currently) take into account the impact of ‘big’, or Championship defining, games so if you think that this is a factor that may influence the outcome of the match, then feel free to adjust the prediction and bet accordingly.
However, we wouldn’t recommend straying too far from our predictions, generally speaking they are pretty accurate, around 70-80% for most leagues and events at the time of writing, but if you think we’ve missed something, feel free to adjust for it. And please let us know after, thanks! We’re always looking to improve.
What the bejesus is this?
What we’ve done here is look at the bookies prices for each match, and compare them to The Algorithm’s predictions.
Our hypothesis is that The Algorithm’s predictions are more accurate than the bookies (and it seems to bear fruit if you see our success page ) so if there is a large discrepancy between our prediction and the bookie, then this will be tagged as a ‘good bet’.
For example: the bookies have a match priced at 6/1, which gives an implied chance of 14.3%. However, The Algorithm gives the side a 20% chance of victory. This means, in the Algorithm’s eyes, that side will win 1 in 5 times, but that the bookies are paying out at the price of 1 in 7 times, and therefore if the match is played 10 times, you should end up up.
However, matches are not played 10 times, and this is where the problem arises. In the above scenario, 4 out of 5 times, you will lose your initial stake, and you will be very, very angry at The Algorithm. Happily however, there is a solution in the wider population of matches being played.
If you follow The Algorithm’s tips over the course of a weekend on all the matches available, then this serves as a proxy for matches ‘being played 10 times’, and therefore you should end up up. A single weekend of matches can still serve up losses though, so we’d recommend following the advice over the course of a season to really get a large enough sample size.
Click here for the detail of how our season is going so far, the tips made and where wins and losses were made.
However, we recognise that not everyone may be logging in and betting on every single match, so we have tiering system in place to give slightly more specific recommendations.
A green bet is a bet that has been identified as value, and the side in question has a greater than 5% chance of winning.
A yellow bet is a bet that has been identified as value, but the side in question has less than a 5% chance of winning.
The reason for this is that sometimes value bets are identified, but the side has a miniscule chance of winning, with the bookies pricing them with even less chance. This is still a value bet, but the chances of it coming off are so long that you would need to cover 100 or so of these bets in order to end up up - something not everyone may wish to do, hence these bets are tagged as yellow.
A red bet is a bet that has no value. The bookies have this match priced similarly to The Algorithm and therefore there is no value in betting on it.
A couple of don’ts … (or, we’d really advise against)
- Put a massive accumulator blindly on all the games we’ve predicted. Some of them will be 50:50s and therefore could go either way. Pay attention to the colour coding system that we have tagged each match with and bet accordingly.
- Come crying to us when your bet didn’t come off. This is sport, unpredictable stuff happens, and that’s why we love it!
And the obvious one to finish…